Can paper books survive the threat from e-readers, and what does this mean for paper companies?
30 April 2010
Leatherhead, UK, 30 April 2010. Pira International is launching a new multi-client study to assess the opportunities and threats for paper companies in the book market.
2009 was named the year that e-books went mainstream, but was it also the year that paper books went into terminal decline?
They have been around for a number of years, but until recently e-books were widely viewed as a speciality sector used by a small number of dedicated enthusiasts and ignored by the majority. This is changing and changing rapidly as the technology has improved. E-books have become more user friendly and most importantly costs have come down, opening up the market to a much larger consumer base.
What was viewed as a curiosity is now seen by many experts as a threat to paper based books. With the worldwide launch of the Amazon Kindle, this threat that has now become global. Until recently, the bulk of the e-book catalogue broadly consisted of textbooks and scientific publications but this is now expanding across a range of categories. Amazon has been growing its digital book range since the launch of the Kindle in 2007 and in August 2009 added 13,713 titles. In July 2009, Barnes and Noble in the US was offering 700,000 titles.
Putting this growth in perspective, according to the Association of American Publishers, between 2002-2008 e-books grew at a compound annual rate of 58%, compared to 1.6% for the overall book industry. More worryingly for the paper producers, Amazon announced at the start of October 2009 that for all books it sells in both print and e-book versions, Kindle versions now account for 48% of unit sales. Six months earlier the figure was around 12%. Clearly this trend will impact paper demand.
For paper producers in North America and Europe, the situation is exacerbated by the continued growth of books imported from the Far East. For example, Asia exported almost $1.5 billion worth of books into the US during 2007.
Will paper books face terminal decline or will they develop a particular niche within the information spectrum? This study will:
- provide a review of a range of technological and market issues that will influence book readership and the media used for books
- assess the effect on future demand for book paper and the implications for existing players, and
- provide quantitative market size and forecasts through to 2020.
Subscribers will receive the final study in September, and will also have a significant opportunity to help shape the scope of the research before the commencement of the primary research phase. There is also an opportunity for an optional on site presentation of the findings and their implications for individual sponsors.
Subscription to The Growth of E-books and the Decline of Paper Books - What are the likely consequences on future paper demand? costs £8,500 or £9,950 including the optional on-site presentation. Pira is also offering a 10% discount for any orders confirmed before the end of April 2010.
This is the second Paper Perspectives Multi-client study for 2010. Paper Perspectives is an ongoing programme looking at opportunities for pulp and paper suppliers based on extensive primary research and expert technical analysis. Paper Perspectives offers a unique mix of quantitative and qualitative research plus the opportunity to discuss the findings with program director Dr. Graham Moore.
For more information, please contact Stephen Hill on +44 (0) 1372 802025
Pira International
Pira International - the worldwide authority on packaging, paper and print industry supply chains
Established in 1930, Pira provides strategic and technical consulting, testing, intelligence and events to help clients gain market insights, identify opportunities, evaluate product performance and manage compliance